My thoughts on the US Election 2020 — in case Trump wins.

It seems that Trump will win if he gets the state of Pennsylvania as well. There are still votes to be counted but he is currently leading, if this is the case here is my breakdown for the near future both national and international.

On the national level:

1.We are having an immense cultural and ideological divide between New York the capital of the World, most of the East Coast, California and the rest of the country this will lead to extreme social tension.

2. The era of the politically correct speech is fading, we will now have as a common aspect the vulgar language, the tough talk and this will be exported in society.

3. The American people have said no to social welfare, in complete contrast with the European Union, the Americans do not want better social services offered from the state in terms of healthcare, education and so on, they view these aspects as socialism therefore reject it.

4. We will have an economy in which the big companies will enjoy tax liberties and benefits, this will generate good numbers for the macroeconomic level but the disparity and inequality between the middle class and financial elites will continue to grow.

On the international level:

• NATO faces an existential crisis, even if countries will allocate 2% off their GDPS, which will probably not happen especially in the case of big players such as Germany.

The European Union realizes that it cannot rely on the US anymore, the transatlantic partnership is now a history lesson. Therefore the EU will have to consolidate integration and develop its own army and become a global player.

We are leaving the rule of law era, abandoning international law and entering the world of realpolitik, a hardcore competition between major powers, the US and China mainly with global ramifications, other regional powers like the EU, Russia, India, Japan, Brazil, Australia will play both sides according to their interests.

After 7 decades of Globalism, liberalism and multilateralism we are now transitioning to nationalism and a lack of trust in international relations a sense of individualism, every state for itself.

What the mainstream media calls “populism” and scientifically represents conservatism will grow worldwide, especially in Europe, Poland, Hungary, France, Italy, Holland and Germany.

Global business and trade will not be backed by international treaties anymore, they will be conducted in a bilateral Wild West gunshot style. Multilateral treaties such as TPP will become a museum artifact.

International organizations such as the UN, WHO, World Bank, WTO will become more and more irrelevant. Instruments of soft power and arenas for dialogue and cooperation between the countries they will now be useless under an American leadership that discredits them publicly.

From a cultural perspective progressiveness will be stopped ✋ and the focus will be shifted to the old traditions and status quo.

4 years of Trump administration have been a major change (in the last 100 years no other presidential transition was as different than the one between Obama and Trump, in terms of values and policy), 4 more years of this will change the very structure of the system on the national level first and by consequence of the international one.

All these aspects combined with the current global medical crisis and the crisis that will inevitably come from now on plus the industrial revolution that are experiencing 2.0 put tremendous pressure on the international system and create a multitude of flashpoints, eventually somewhere, somehow thing will get out of control completely, where and what we shall see.

For those opponents and critiques of the global, liberal, multilateral system that we had in place since the end of the 2nd World War, I will give the following example:

• The system was not perfect, but it was the most prosperous period in human history, not for everyone that is a utopian idea but nonetheless grosso modo it was the better option. This is now changing, think of a butterfly 🦋 it is a piece o beauty and sublime movement, if you give it a slight touch on his wings it will stop flying. We are in that context. This is how important this elections were for the World.